Through The Fly's Eyes: American Greetings

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.













Salutations by Mail, or the Web

Did you know that the creator of Care Bears also invented the Strawberry Shortcake and Holly Hobbie characters? No? It's true. In fact, it's a Cleveland-based outfit that has been selling greeting cards for 101 years.

American Greetings Corporation (AM) designs, manufactures and sells greeting cards and other social expression products. It offers everyday and seasonal cards, gift wrap, party goods, stationery and giftware. It also distributes greetings over the Internet. The company operates about 500 retail outlets in North America and its products are sold in some 125,000 retail stores worldwide. Target Corp. (TGT) and CVS Caremark (CVS) are major retail customers.

Investors were pleased last week, when the company reported Q1 EPS of 55 cents and revenues of $418 million. Analysts had been looking for 34 cents and $393.9 million. Management also guided FY08 EPS to $1.35-$1.55, versus Street consensus of $1.35. The stock popped through 30-day and 50-day moving average resistance on the news and has since begun to consolidate the gain in a bullish "pennant" consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit pennants moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Brokers currently recommend the issue with three "holds." Analysts see a 19% growth rate, through the next year. The AM P/E ratio (19.28), Price to Sales ratio (0.87), Price to Book ratio (1.48) and EPS Growth rate (139.13%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 400 MidCap Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $20.65 and $29.00. A stop-loss of $24.20 looks good here.