Through The Fly's Eyes: Same-Store Sales

from Eric Buscemi of Theflyonthewall.com















Overreaction on Wall Street?

Wal-Mart (WMT) released disappointing preliminary Same-Store Sales numbers this weekend, contributing to the markets' awful performance on Monday [Dow down -1.2%, Nasdaq down -2.1%]. While this is an indicator of the overall health of retail in its most critical season, This Fly believes this one number, albeit poor, is not enough to signal a disastrous holiday shopping season.

There are a number of other Same-Store Sales numbers to look at in the near future:

* Wal-Mart's actual November SSS results - Remember all we have now is preliminary results.
* Target (TGT) - Even if Wal-Mart's numbers are off, is their shortfall a company issue or an industry-wide epidemic?
* Federated (FD) - Will Wal-Mart's miss affect the high-end shoppers who frequent Macy's?
* Best Buy (BBY) - Are Wal-Mart's numbers off because consumers are spending a greater percentage of their dollars on hot new tech items from electronics retailers?
* Amazon.com (AMZN) - Wal-Mart's website went offline for the better part of Black Friday, signaling a peak in Internet shopping. Will this show positively in Amazon's sales numbers?

This Fly is not saying everything is fine in the world of retail, just cautioning to wait for more data before jumping to any extreme conclusions.

[Editor's Note: Best Buy does not release November sales numbers, but they will release Q3 sales numbers, which encompass August 27 through November 25, on December 12. They will also release December sales on January 5]